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| #31054 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 08.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 DENNIS IS WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA NOW...AND THE LAST RECON REPORT RIGHT AT LANDFALL NEAR CIENFUEGOS INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD RISEN 3 MILLIBARS TO 941 MB. HOWEVER...A WIND GUST TO 149 MPH WAS MEASURED IN CIENFUEGOS CAUSING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE THERE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/15. DENNIS HAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT A MEAN MOTION BETWEEN 310 AND 315 DEGREES THE PAST 12 HOURS ...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT TYPE OF MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 12Z AND 18Z INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY. ALSO...UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A COLD POOL OF -10C HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN LOUSIANA ALONG A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS...WHICH NONE OF THE MODELS INTIALIZED VERY WELL. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP CREATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAN THE GLOBAL...GFDL...AND NAM MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO DROP SOUTH OF LOUSIANA OVER THE NOTHWESTERN GULF. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DEEP- LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. DENNIS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE OVER CUBA...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. HOWQEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DENNIS TO RE-STRENGTHEN... POSSIBLY TO CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...ONCE IT REACHES THE 29C SSTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 24 HOURS...DENNIS WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER...WHICH MAY BRING ABOUT SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING...BUT THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE U.S. LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. ALL OF THE WIND SPEED RADII...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIGHT SEMICIRCLE... WERE INCREASED BASED ON RECON DATA. SOME FACTS ABOUT DENNIS...THE EARLIEST CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TO DEVELOP IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO EARLY IN THE YEAR. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 22.6N 81.1W 115 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 12HR VT 09/0600Z 23.9N 82.7W 105 KT...OVER S.E. GULF 24HR VT 09/1800Z 25.7N 84.4W 110 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 27.8N 85.6W 110 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 86.7W 110 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 34.9N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 12/1800Z 38.0N 90.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 120HR VT 13/1800Z 39.5N 85.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND |
