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| #31118 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:52 PM 08.Jul.2005) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 ...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHING HAVANA AND MATANZAS IN WESTERN CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES ... 75 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR HAVANA AND MATANZAS AND EMERGE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER CUBA. HOWEVER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IT EMERGES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 160 FEET. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. HIGHER VALUES OF STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 9 PM EDT POSITION...22.8 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
