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| #31246 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 09.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DENNIS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WHILE MOVING OVER CUBA. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A 12 NMI EYE AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 972 MB. HOWEVER...THE PLANE HAS NOT REPORTED ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 71 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KNOTS...AND THIS IS VERY GENEROUS. SHIPS MODEL IS NO LONGER RE-INTENSIFYING DENNIS BUT THE GFDL DOES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND RE-STRENGTHENS DENNIS OVER THE GULF BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD LATER TODAY. NORMALLY... IT TAKES 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR A CYCLONE TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF LAND...IF AT ALL. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE MOTION OF DENNIS IS STILL CONTROLLED MAINLY BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THEREFORE...A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND EVEN THE UK MODEL SOLUTION WHICH WAS THE FARTHER WEST HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND IT IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVING ALL THESE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND THE EARLY ARRIVAL TO THE COAST OF THE 34-KNOT WINDS...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 23.9N 82.9W 80 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 25.3N 84.1W 90 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 85.7W 100 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 29.8N 87.1W 110 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 12/0600Z 36.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/0600Z 38.0N 89.5W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 14/0600Z 39.1N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND |
