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| #31525 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 PM 09.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 WHAT A DIFFERENCE 2 HOURS MAKES! AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS DROPPED 11 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED N OF THE CENTER WERE 105 KT...AND THERE WERE LIKELY STRONGER WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPGRADES DENNIS TO A 100 KT CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA. THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REVISED TO SHOW 12 HR OF RAPID STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY SLOWER STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS DENNIS ASHORE AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. AFTER-LANDFALL INTENSITIES WERE ALSO INCREASED THROUGH 72 HR TO REFLECT THE INCREASED LANDFALL INTENSITY. THE NEW PACKAGE ALSO INCLUDES SLIGHT REVISIONS TO THE WIND RADII AND 12 FT SEAS RADII. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2300Z 26.1N 84.9W 100 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 85.8W 115 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 29.9N 87.2W 120 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 32.3N 88.4W 75 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 11/1800Z 34.2N 89.3W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 12/1800Z 37.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 13/1800Z 38.0N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/1800Z 39.0N 82.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW |
