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| #31805 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 10.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 RECONNAISSANCE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS CEASED. MOST RECENT ESTIMATED PRESSURE WAS 930 MB...AND THE HIGHEST RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 131 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 120 KT. ALTHOUGH DENNIS IS NOW MOVING OVER WATERS OF SOMEWHAT LOWER HEAT CONTENT...IT IS MOVING RAPIDLY ENOUGH THAT ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORIES THREE AND FOUR. AFTER AN EARLIER NORTHWARD WOBBLE...DENNIS IS NOW BACK ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST HEADING...340 DEGREES...BUT AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOVES THE TIMING OF LANDFALL UP A FEW HOURS...TO MID-AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE A COUPLE HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 MILES TO THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THE EARLIER NORTHWARD JOG...AND LIES ON THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE REMNANTS OF THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 29.4N 86.7W 120 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 31.5N 87.8W 85 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 11/1200Z 33.9N 88.8W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 12/0000Z 35.8N 89.3W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/1200Z 37.5N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 13/1200Z 38.5N 88.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 14/1200Z 39.0N 86.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/1200Z 39.0N 86.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
