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| #31918 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 10.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 DENNIS MADE LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA AT 1925Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 100 TO 105 KT...BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 117 KT AT 1928Z...TWO STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER OBSERVATIONS OF 100 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS AT LANDFALL ALSO SUPPORT THIS VALUE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/18. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL RECURVATURE AND SLOWDOWN OR STALL IN THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE TRACK OF DENNIS...AND ITS REMNANTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD EXTEND PERHAPS 100 TO 150 MILES INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 30.8N 87.2W 90 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 32.7N 88.0W 60 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 11/1800Z 35.2N 89.2W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 12/0600Z 37.0N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/1800Z 37.8N 89.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 13/1800Z 38.5N 88.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 14/1800Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/1800Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
