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| #32019 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 10.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIPPLER RADARDATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DENNIS IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. NO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE GULF DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS...SO ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. DENNIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION AS EARLY AS THE NEXT ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/14. DENNIS HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND HAS TURNED BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS..FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTERWARDS AS DENNIS COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SLOW MOVING MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN 72 THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND THIS FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE TRACK OF DENNIS...AND ITS REMNANTS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE DENNIS MOVED INLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ALOFT HAVE NOT DECREASED MUCH AT ALL BASED ON 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA. UNFORTUNATELY... THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE PRODUCTION OF TORNADOES ON MONDAY TO THE EAST OF DENNIS' TRACK DURING THE DAY ONCE THE SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOPSHERE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 32.3N 87.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 34.3N 88.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 12/0000Z 36.4N 89.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 36HR VT 12/1200Z 37.7N 89.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 48HR VT 13/0000Z 38.4N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 72HR VT 14/0000Z 38.9N 87.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 96HR VT 15/0000Z 38.9N 87.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 120HR VT 16/0000Z 38.9N 87.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND |
