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| #32022 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:14 PM 10.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1280 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. SINCE THE 00Z SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AT LEAST 25-KT INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 24-36 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT. THE GFDL...GFS...NOGAPS...AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IN 84 TO 96 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY DAY 5... THE RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN AND POSSIBLY TURN THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OVER OR NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINCIAN REPUBLIC. THE DEPRESSION...WHILE WELL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ONLY A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS SUCH...OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...NEAR 29C SSTS...AND AN INCREASINGLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 112 KT IN 120 HOURS OR SO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 10.8N 42.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 11.0N 44.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 11.5N 46.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 12.1N 49.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 12.8N 51.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 57.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 16.5N 63.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 69.0W 75 KT |
