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| #32054 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 11.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS NOW A RAGGED BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0...I.E. 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS CAUSING THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO BE SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER WEAK SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE MOTION REMAINS 270/10. SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK OUTPUT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 10.8N 43.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 11.1N 45.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 11.6N 48.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 12.1N 50.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 12.6N 53.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 14.5N 60.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 66.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 71.0W 70 KT...INLAND |
