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| #32179 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 11.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005 GOOD LUCK FINDING A CENTER IN THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS CLEARLY A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OF MY ESTIMATED POSITION...AS EVIDENCED BY A MICROWAVE PASS AT 1737Z...BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL TRY TO LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE AND FOLLOW THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE OVERALL DISTURBANCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. GIVEN THE CYCLONE'S DISHEVELED APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/12. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY WELL CLUSTERED...WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND IS SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STEADY STRENGHENING IS ANTICIPATED...ROUGHLY IN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO MAKE THE CYCLONE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 10.6N 46.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 10.9N 47.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 11.6N 50.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 12.4N 53.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 13.2N 56.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 15.0N 63.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 17.0N 68.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 74.0W 70 KT |
