Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #32223 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 11.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE EARLIER EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE EAST SIDE THAT HAD BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE LARGER CIRCULATION HAS WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER IS 3.0/45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE MUCH IMPROVED INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 35 KT ON THE SYNOPTIC TIME AND 40 KT FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY...AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED EMILY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS SMALL BUT SYMMETRICAL...AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. DUE TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEPER CONVECTION...THE FORECAST TRACK HAD TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH...OR RIGHT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST PARALLEL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY STRONG AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...NEAR PUERTO RICO IN 72-84 HOURS...AND THEN PASSING OVER OR NORTH OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA IN 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SO TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...NOW THAT THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS COME INTO THE FOLD...THE MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN 120 HOURS IS LESS THAN 120 NMI. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE OR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24-36 HOURS WHEN EMILY IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A SMALL 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER ...IF EMILY DOES NOT INTERACT MUCH WITH PUERTO RICO AND/OR HISPANIOLA...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AT 120 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 11.3N 47.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 11.8N 48.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 12.6N 51.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 13.5N 54.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 58.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W 80 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 69.5W 85 KT...NEAR PUERTO RICO 120HR VT 17/0000Z 21.5N 75.5W 85 KT...NEAR ERN HISPANIOLA |
