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| #32294 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 12.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 EMILY IS SHOWING IMPROVED BANDING THIS MORNING...AND A MICROWAVE PASS AT 0920Z DOES MUCH TO IMPROVE CONFIDENCE IN A WELL-DEFINED CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A T3.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB. OUTFLOW IS STRONG BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CONSOLIDATING...A MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING TREND IS LIKELY...WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BEING THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/18...CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN BEFORE. MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS HAD SOMETHING OF A RIGHT BIAS SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE CENTER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...EVEN MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED ABOUT 100 NMI SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 11.0N 51.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 11.4N 53.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 11.9N 57.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 12.8N 60.2W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.0N 63.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 16.0N 69.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 80.0W 100 KT |
