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| #32340 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 PM 12.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED THIS AFTERNOON... EMILY IS MAINTAINING DECENT BANDING AND GOOD SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. GIVEN THIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CYCLONE TOMORROW MORNING AT 12Z. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/17...AND ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS EDGED SOUTHWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...KEEPING IT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS AND NOGAPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AS NOTED ABOVE...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND THE WATER IS WARM. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO MAKE A MAJOR HURRICANE OUT OF EMILY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STRENGTHENING TREND WILL LIKELY RESUME WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY. WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 11.1N 52.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 11.5N 55.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 12.1N 58.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 13.0N 61.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 14.0N 64.8W 85 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 71.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 83.0W 100 KT |
