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| #3238 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:35 PM 31.Jul.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012004 2100Z SAT JUL 31 2004 AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.6W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.6W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 78.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 31.5N 79.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 34.0N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 35.2N 76.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.5N 73.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 40.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 46.0N 57.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 78.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
