Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #32420 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:11 PM 12.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 265/17. THIS MOTION IS TAKING EMILY ON A TRACK TO THE SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREFORE...A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED TO THE ENTIRE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AND THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NOGAPS IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER...AND GIVEN ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE THUS FAR THIS YEAR...AND THE CURRENT MOTION TRENDS...IT COULD TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT. HOWEVER...I WILL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL TRACKS...AFTER ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN LACKING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESUMED...WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATED BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE. 00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SINCE THEN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. GIVEN THE TREND OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING EMILY TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 24 HOURS AND MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK FORECAST...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 10.7N 54.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 11.1N 57.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 11.8N 60.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 12.7N 63.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 13.7N 66.9W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 100 KT |
