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| #32457 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 13.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE...AND NOT VERY SYMMETRICAL. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. LOW CLOUD LINES EVIDENT IN IR COMBINATION CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. IN SPITE OF THE STORM'S ASYMMETRICAL APPEARENCE...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK OVER THE AREA. PERHAPS THE EROSION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT IS DUE TO AN INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 50 KT...AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE SHOULD GIVE US MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH OF EMILY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL PREDICT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF EMILY AS IT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS. MY WIND SPEED FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE... AND TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. EMILY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IN 3-5 DAYS. EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD...AROUND 270/17. DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUITE...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 11.1N 56.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 11.6N 58.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 12.4N 61.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 13.3N 64.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 14.3N 67.9W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 16.0N 74.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 86.5W 100 KT |
