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| #32502 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 13.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 270 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 225 MILES... 360 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 58.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
