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| #32504 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 13.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005 FOR A STORM MOVING WESTWARD AT ALMOST 20 KT...THERE IS A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF WIND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTING UP TO 56 KT AT 850 MB IN THE ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AT LEAST 45 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND THE FLIGHT CREW HAS VISUALLY ESTIMATED WINDS OF 55 KT. GIVEN THIS...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. INCIDENTALLY...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA CONFIRM THE RAIN-FLAGGED BUT ESSENTIALLY CORRECT QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE 09Z PASS. EMILY CONTINUES ON A STUBBORN WESTWARD TRACK...270/17. THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE TRACK MODELS HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET. CLEARLY THERE HAS BEEN MORE RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAN EXPECTED. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET ON THE NORTH...AND NOGAPS ON THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF EMILY IS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE NEAR THE CORE...AND I PRESUME THAT THE DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...UPPER WINDS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. WHILE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IF EMILY DOES NOT GAIN SOME LATITUDE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IT COULD LOSE A SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND END UP CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 11.2N 58.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 11.5N 60.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 12.4N 64.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 13.3N 67.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 14.2N 70.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 76.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 18.0N 82.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 19.5N 88.0W 95 KT...INLAND |
