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| #3252 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 31.Jul.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH LATER TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...30.9 N...78.6 W. MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
