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| #32623 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 13.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005 REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF EMILY IS VERY NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 62 KT AT 850 MB...AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/16. IT'S NOT QUITE WEST-NORTHWEST... BUT IT'S A START. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE BASIC FORECAST REASONING...WITH EMILY EXPECTED TO TAKE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS LITTLE CHANGED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS PARTIALLY EXPOSED EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAS BECOME OBSCURED AGAIN. A LOW-LEVEL SURGE IN THE EASTERLIES OVERTAKING EMILY APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME MODEST WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE'S CORE...AND MAY ALSO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DRY ENVIRONMENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AREAS AT SIGNIFICANT ELEVATION ABOVE SEA LEVEL...PARTICULARLY ON GRENADA...COULD EXPERIENCE SOME HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 11.4N 59.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 11.9N 62.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 12.8N 65.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 13.8N 68.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 14.7N 71.7W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 16.5N 78.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 18.5N 84.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 20.0N 89.5W 65 KT...INLAND |
