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| #32687 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 PM 13.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...EMILY ARRIVES IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...CENTER PASSING JUST NORTH OF TOBAGO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS... TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST. LUCIA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA WESTWARD TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 60.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE CLEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HOWEVER...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...11.5 N... 60.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB |
