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| #32721 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 13.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD FROM CUMANA TO PUNTO FIJO ON THE PARAGUANA PENINSULA. AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD... TOBAGO...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EMERGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THURSDAY. DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.9 N... 61.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB |
