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| #32723 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:14 PM 13.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005 EMILY HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE THIS EVENING. THE FIRST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2331Z INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB. 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 50 TO 65 KT...WITH THE STRONGER ESTIMATES BASED ON A LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. LATER RECON FIXES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER HAD REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE CONVECTION...AND THE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA SOON RESPONDED. THE PRESSURE HAS MOST RECENTLY FALLEN TO 992 MB...AND THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND HAS BEEN 79 KT...SUPPORTING AT LEAST 63 KT AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...REDUCTION TO THE SURFACE OF A DROPSONDE PROFILE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 01Z SUPPORTS SURFACE WINDS OF 80 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAKING EMILY A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. DUE TO THE SCATTER IN THE RECON FIXES DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 275/16. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW POSITION...THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NWS MODELS...GFS AND GFDL...HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE NAVY MODELS...GFDN AND NOGAPS...HAVE SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES EMILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 11.9N 61.1W 80 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.5N 63.5W 85 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 13.4N 66.7W 90 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 70.0W 95 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.2W 100 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 90.5W 90 KT |
