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| #32755 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 14.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 OBSERVATIONS FROM GRENADA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER PASSED OVER THE ISLAND AROUND 07Z...AT WHICH TIME THE OBSERVING SITE WAS REPORTING WESTERLY WINDS WITH A PRESSURE OF 993 MB. AFTER THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE OBSERVED YESTERDAY EVENING...EMILY NOW APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING AT A MORE MODERATE PACE. THIS WAS SUGGESTED BY CENTRAL PRESSURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF RECON FIXES BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AROUND 12Z. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER SYMMETRICAL WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALSO WELL-DEFINED...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PREDICTED TO BECOME STRONG ALONG THE PATH OF EMILY. MOREOVER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...STRENGTHENING SEEMS INEVITABLE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND...AS NOTED EARLIER...COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. BASED ON THE RECON FIXES AND THE GRENADA OBS...THE MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/16. MY TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A LARGE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF EMILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD FORCE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. TRACK PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION BUT DIFFER ON SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER. SOME MODELS... SUCH AS THE GFDL AND GFS...INDICATE AN EVEN FASTER MOTION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 12.3N 62.3W 80 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 13.0N 64.7W 85 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 14.0N 68.0W 90 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 15.2N 71.5W 95 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.4N 75.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 82.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W 90 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 100 KT |
