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| #32797 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 14.Jul.2005) TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z THU JUL 14 2005 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 64.0W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 64.0W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 63.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.3N 66.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 69.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.6N 73.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 76.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 64.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
