Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #32803 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 AM 14.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 EMILY IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. REPORTS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY IS STRENGTHENING AGAIN. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE FELL BY AT LEAST 13 MB OVER THE LAST 8 HOURS. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 90 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS 80 KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT I PRESUME THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THIS DECREASE IN PRESSURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED TO 85 KT...CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/16. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE WITH THEIR MORE NORTHWARD TRACKS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR HURRICANE. THERE ARE SOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERIES AHEAD OF EMILY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO GET OUT OF THE WAY. MOREOVER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND CALLS FOR SOMEWHAT MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 12.7N 64.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.3N 66.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 69.9W 100 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 15.6N 73.3W 105 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 76.8W 110 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 83.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 90 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 19/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W 100 KT |
