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| #32868 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 14.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...EMILY BECOMES A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES... 720 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 65.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
