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| #32872 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 14.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 LOW-LEVEL DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS AT 1525 AND 1712Z YIELDED SURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS OF 92 AND 93 KT. THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS...BUT SINCE THAT TIME...THE EYE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK T NUMBERS HAVE INCREASE BY 0.5 TO 1 T-NUMBER. ON THIS BASIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING EMILY THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z UKMET IS NOW CLOSER TO THE REST OF TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT AVERAGE 5-DAY TRACK ERRORS EXCEED 300 NMI. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE NOT BE ANY APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE CURRENTLY UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT IF THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BELOW EMILY WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. INTERNAL PROCESSES...SUCH AS HARD TO FORECAST EYEWALL CYCLES...COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...BUT NO ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ANTICIPATE THESE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 13.3N 65.9W 100 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.1N 68.5W 105 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.3N 72.1W 115 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.5N 75.7W 115 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 17.6N 79.0W 115 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 19.5N 85.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 90.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.0W 90 KT |
