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| #3298 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 01.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004 THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES OR COASTAL RADARS. LOW CLOUD MOTIONS ON THE NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED CENTER IS NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. THERE IS MODEST UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DEPRESSION'S CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HINDER SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE COAST...AS DOES THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...340/6...REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SO STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUALLY- AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST SUGGEST KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 32.1N 79.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 33.0N 79.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 34.0N 78.2W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/1800Z 34.8N 77.0W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 03/0600Z 35.7N 75.5W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 04/0600Z 39.5N 69.0W 40 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 05/0600Z 44.5N 60.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
