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| #33052 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 15.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005 AN AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY OBSERVING THE STRUCTURE OF EMILY HAS REPORTED CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 8 AND 25 N MI RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT EMILY MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE LAST TIME THE RECON MEASURED WINDS TO SUPPORT CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE IS NO EYE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 110 KT IN THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS IT WAS FOR DENNIS LAST WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER EMILY. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL IS SHOWING INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WERE WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW AND THEY STILL DO...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME LARGER INSTEAD. THEREFORE... SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BUT ASSUMING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL LIKELY BE PARTIALLY CORRECT IN FORECASTING A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...EMILY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ONCE EMILY CROSSES YUCATAN AND WEAKENS...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY A STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS THE STRONGEST FROM THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP EMILY ON THIS GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE SINCE ALL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A NORTHWARD BIAS SO FAR. THE STRUCTURE OF EMILY HAS BEEN ABLE TO BE OBSERVED BY THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES RADAR LOCATED AT CURACAO. - FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 14.4N 70.9W 110 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 15.0N 73.5W 105 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 16.5N 77.0W 105 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 18.0N 80.0W 105 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 83.0W 105 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 22.0N 89.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 25.0N 94.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 26.0N 98.5W 60 KT |
