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| #33137 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 15.Jul.2005) TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 2100Z FRI JUL 15 2005 AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 72.8W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 72.8W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.2N 75.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.6N 78.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 82.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 91.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 25.0N 96.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 27.0N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 72.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA |
