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| #33139 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 15.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 ...EMILY WEAKENS BUT EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.7 N... 72.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA |
