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| #33140 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 15.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND RECORDED AS THE PLANE LEFT THE CYCLONE WAS 101 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 969 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 90 KNOTS AND THIS IS A GENEROUS ESTIMATE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR HURRICANES TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTERACT WITH THE MID OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A PERSISTENT LARGE MID TO UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT IS PRODUCING SHEAR OVER EMILY. NEVERTHERELESS...THE HURRICANE IS PUTTING UP A GOOD FIGHT AGAINST THE SHEAR. MODELS UNANIMOUSLY ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF SUCH WEAKENING YET...AND IN FACT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TOWARD THE HURRICANE ARE STRONGER NOW THAN 12 HOURS AGO. THE MODELS INSIST ON FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...EMILY IS HEADING FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH AND HISTORICALLY CYCLONES INTENSIFY. THE BEST OPTION DESPITE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF EMILY IS TO KEEP THE SAME INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND FORECAST A MODEST INTENSIFICATION THERAFTER. EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST YET. BECAUSE EMILY IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER-MEAN HIGH TO THE NORTH...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THIS TURN AND SO FAR IT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT IT IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 14.7N 72.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 15.2N 75.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 16.6N 78.9W 95 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 18.3N 82.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 105 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 22.5N 91.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 25.0N 96.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 27.0N 100.0W 50 KT...INLAND |
