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| #33233 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 16.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM AST SAT JUL 16 2005 ...CATGEORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 350 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 495 MILES... 795 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASS TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT LEAST 135 MPH...215 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MEANS EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...15.3 N... 75.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 953 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART |
