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| #33269 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 16.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 AIR FORCE RECON DATA NEAR 06Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 953 MB...AND A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 131 KT...OR 118 KT EQUIVALENT SURFACE WINDS...WAS OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DURING THE OUTBOUND LEG. GIVEN THAT THE 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS CLEARED OUT NICELY SINCE THE RECON FLIGHT...AND THAT ODT VALUES OVER THE PAST 1.5H HAVE BEEN T6.5/127 KT...THE INTENSITY FOR THE ADVISORY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 120 KT. THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16. EMILY HAS BEEN ON A 285 DEGREE HEADING FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND I SEE NO INDICATIONS THAT THAT MOTION SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE ANY TIME SOON. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z INDICATES 24-HOUR 700-400 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED BY ABOUT 20 METERS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT MOTION AND PASS MORE THAN 60 NMI SOUTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY. BEYOND THAT... THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON EMILY MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALLOW EMILY TO BRIEFLY MOVE MORE NORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD STRONGLY WESTWARD. LOCATION OF A SECOND LANDFALL IS DIFFCULT TO PREDICT AT 96 HOURS...BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA APPEARS TO BE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A NICE ROUND CDO...AND WITH WARMER WATER AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW...THE ONLY INHIBITING INTENSITY FACTORS SHOULD BE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND LAND INTERACTION. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ABOUT 30 KT AS IT PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN...BUT IT COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH DUE TO 29-30C SSTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 15.6N 75.8W 120 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 16.3N 78.3W 125 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 81.5W 120 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 18.9N 84.7W 120 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 20.3N 87.6W 115 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN 72HR VT 19/0600Z 23.1N 92.9W 90 KT...OVER SOUTHWEST GULFMEX 96HR VT 20/0600Z 25.0N 97.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W 35 KT...INLAND OVER NRN MEXICO |
