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| #33305 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 16.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE INCLUDING THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 335 MILES... 540 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH OF JAMAICA TODAY AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA TODAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.2 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
