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| #33306 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 16.Jul.2005) TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z SAT JUL 16 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE INCLUDING THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 77.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 77.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 76.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.1N 79.7W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...135NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N 86.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.3N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 94.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 26.0N 103.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 77.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
