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| #33312 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 16.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 EMILY HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 943 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 148 KT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 130-135 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND EYEWALL DROPSONDES DO NOT YET SUPPORT WINDS THIS HIGH. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/16...JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. EMILY IS ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THIS RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD...WITH PERHAPS A WEAKNESS REMAINING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR AT LEAST 48 HR...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THE EXACT TRACK DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WEAKNESS THERE IS IN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS MADE A LARGE SHIFT TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODELS CALLING FOR THE RIDGE TO FILL IN AND LANDFALL IN EAST CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL ALSO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. EMILY HAS BECOME WELL ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL-DEFINED 13 N MI WIDE EYE AND A STRONG OUTER BAND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE MAJOR FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL IN YUCATAN WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT EYEWALL CYCLES...WITH PERHAPS SOME INFLUENCE FROM DRY AIR TRYING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER YUCATAN...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 16.2N 77.3W 125 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 79.7W 130 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 18.5N 83.0W 130 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 19.9N 86.2W 130 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 21.3N 89.4W 100 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 19/1200Z 23.5N 94.5W 105 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 20/1200Z 25.0N 99.0W 75 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 21/1200Z 26.0N 103.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING |
