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| #33328 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:49 PM 16.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELLED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 295 MILES... 480 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH OF JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 937 MB...27.66 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.4 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
