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| #33375 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 16.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. AT ABOUT 17Z...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 937 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 151 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT EMILY HAS GOTTEN STRONGER SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM. HOWEVER... THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE DOES NOT YET SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS...SO ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN THE INTITAL WINDS WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED NEAR 00Z. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. EMILY IS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THIS RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD...WITH PERHAPS A WEAKNESS REMAINING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THE EXACT TRACK DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WEAKNESS THERE IS IN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE LAST SET OF RUNS...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET...WHICH IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW THE RIGHT OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH GUNS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS 20 KT OF SHEAR AFFECTING EMILY FROM WHICH IT FORECASTS WEAKENING... BUT THIS SHEAR IS NOT APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SATELLITE- DERIVED WINDS FROM CIMSS. A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED NO EVIDENCE OF AN OUTER EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME OUTER BANDING THAT COULD SOON WRAP UP INTO AN OUTER EYEWALL. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT...WHILE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITIES FROM COLA ARE CLOSER TO 135 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND 135 KT AS THE HURRICANE GOES THROUGH INTERNAL CYCLES. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF EMILY BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE FOR SOME PART OF THE NEXT 24 HR. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER YUCATAN...BUT STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE GREATLY REVISED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 42058. THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE SOMEWHAT REVISED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 16.8N 78.8W 135 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.7N 81.2W 135 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 19.1N 84.4W 135 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 20.4N 87.7W 125 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/1800Z 21.6N 90.7W 100 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 19/1800Z 23.5N 96.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W 65 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 21/1800Z 26.0N 104.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING |
