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| #33417 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 16.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 ...EMILY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 220 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 480 MILES... 770 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER WESTERN JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB |
