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| #33424 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 PM 16.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 EMILY HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HOWEVER... AN AIRCRAFT RECON FIX AT 2340Z DID INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN 8 MB SINCE 18Z TO 929 MB... AND A MORE RECENT FIX MEASURED 931 MB. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS 149 KT... WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 135 KT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 7.0 FROM TAFB... SO THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS ON WHICH TO UPGRADE TO A CATEGORY FIVE AT THIS TIME. SINCE BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR TO POSE NOTHING OBVIOUS TO WEAKEN EMILY... INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL LIKELY DETERMINE INTENSITY CHANGES BEFORE EMILY PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH TIME EMILY SPENDS OVER YUCATAN... BUT IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT IT WILL MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/16. THIS EXTRAPOLATED MOTION IS USED TO CONSTRUCT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OUT TO ABOUT 36 HOURS... AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.... SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS... DO NOT INITIALIZE THE POSITION OR SHORT-TERM MOTION VERY WELL. IF ANYTHING... THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS... SO I SEE NO REASON TO SHIFT THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS STILL TO SOON... HOWEVER... TO DETERMINE IF LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN MEXICO OR IN TEXAS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 17.5N 80.3W 135 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 18.5N 82.6W 135 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.8N 85.8W 135 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 95 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 19/0000Z 22.2N 92.0W 105 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 97.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W 55 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING |
