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| #33464 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 17.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AT 0324Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 153 KT. THE STANDARD ADJUSTMENT OF THIS VALUE TO THE SURFACE WOULD YIELD 138 KT...OR JUST ABOVE THE CATEGORY FIVE THRESHOLD. AT THAT TIME HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS RISING RAPIDLY AND ON THE NEXT PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ONLY 132 KT WINDS WERE FOUND. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EMILY REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BRIEFLY AROUND 03Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 130 KT. WHILE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FOR EMILY TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES THE YUCATAN. DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE TRACK...EMILY COULD SPEND ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED OVER LAND. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE AMPLE TIME IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS FOR EMILY TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/17. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE DURATION. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...EMILY WILL BE APPROACHING A MODEST MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THIS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN A RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK BEFORE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION RESUMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 18.0N 82.0W 130 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 18.9N 84.5W 130 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 20.2N 87.4W 125 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 90.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 22.7N 93.0W 95 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 24.0N 97.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 24.5N 102.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
