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| #33504 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 17.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HR. THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED. THE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 946 MB...WITH MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 142 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 130 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/17. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR FORECAST TRACK. EMILY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EAST-WEST LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO TEXAS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH A WEAKNESS PERHAPS DEVELOPING IN 36-48 HR OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS. WHETHER THE WEAKNESS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...THE TRACK AFTER 36 HR IS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE WEAKENING THAT HAS OCCURRED IS DUE TO AN INTERNAL CYCLE OR EXTERNAL FORCING. A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS DOES NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...AND WHILE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF SHEAR AT THIS TIME. EMILY CONTINUES TO GENERATE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION OR FLUCTUATIONS BEFORE LANDFALL IN YUCATAN. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER YUCATAN... THEN RE-INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND DISSIPATE BY 120 HR OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 18.6N 83.6W 130 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.9W 130 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 20.9N 88.9W 110 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 19/0000Z 22.2N 91.6W 85 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 19/1200Z 23.1N 94.2W 100 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 24.5N 99.0W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 21/1200Z 24.5N 104.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
