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| #33564 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:49 PM 17.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY BEARING DOWN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 270 MILES... 440 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES... BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 73 MPH WITH A GUST TO 85 MPH. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...19.6 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH |
