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| #33617 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 18.Jul.2005) TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0900Z MON JUL 18 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CABO ROJO NORTHWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 88.0W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 40SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 125SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 88.0W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 87.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.6N 90.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 15SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.9N 92.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.8N 95.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 75SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.4N 97.7W...ON THE COASTLINE MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.0N 103.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 88.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
