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| #33623 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 18.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 THE EYEWALL OF HURRICANE EMILY PASSED OVER COZUMEL A FEW HOURS AGO. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OVERFLEW THE ISLAND DURING THE EYEWALL PASSAGE...AT 05Z...AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 124 KT. AT 0322Z...THEY REPORTED 141 KT. LANDFALL OCCURRED NEAR 0630Z JUST NORTH OF TULUM. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA SUGGEST THAT EMILY LIKELY MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 115 KT. NO OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE LANDFALL AREA. EMILY WILL BE SPENDING ROUGHLY 9 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN...BUT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THIS PASSAGE. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ONCE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. JUST HOW MUCH EMILY RESTRENGTHENS IS PARTLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT THAT THE INNER CORE IS DISRUPTED AFTER PASSING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN. THE INITIAL MOTION...295/15...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO BASICALLY UNCHANGED. NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT CONDUCTED SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS IN THE GULF AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THESE MISSIONS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOLIDLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COULD ALSO RESULT IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE INFLUENCES SHOULD DIMINISH IN ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE TRACK SHOULD THEN BEND BACK TOWARD THE LEFT. THE GFS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS STORM...IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS ON THE NORTHERN EGDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IN FACT HAS OUTPERFORMED BOTH THE NOGAPS AND GFS WITH THIS CYCLONE. NONE OF THE STANDARD GUIDANCE SHOWS A LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THAT THE AVERAGE 48 HOUR TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 140 NMI...SUCH A LANDFALL IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. 1-MINUTE DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 WERE HELPFUL IN ADJUSTING THE 34 KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 20.6N 88.0W 95 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 21.6N 90.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 22.9N 92.8W 85 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 23.8N 95.2W 95 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 24.4N 97.7W 100 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 21/0600Z 25.0N 103.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
