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| #33665 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 18.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF EMILY IS BACK OVER WATER. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL-ORGANIZED WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE AREA LATER TODAY. EMILY IS CURRENTLY OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...WHICH NORMALLY PREVAILS NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN...BUT LATER TODAY...THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LOW IS STILL IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALL GLOBAL MODELS GET RID OF THE LOW AND DEVELOP A WELL-DEFINED 200 MB HIGH OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LOW SHEAR ALONG THE TRACK. THEREFORE...RE-STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AND EMILY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. EMILY...AS ANTICIPATED...IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 295 AND 300 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS...AROUND A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. A WEAKNESS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY INDUCE A SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT TEMPORARILY. HOWEVER...THE WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE EMILY TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE CENTER OF EMILY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. UPPER-AIR DATA FROM CANCUN AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY BOTH THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE AND THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE BEEN VERY USEFUL IN TRACKING AND FORECASTING EMILY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 21.8N 89.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 22.8N 91.8W 90 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 23.9N 94.4W 95 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 96.8W 100 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 25.0N 99.2W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 21/1200Z 25.5N 104.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
