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| #33732 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 18.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FLEW INTO EMILY TODAY AND CONFIRMED THAT THE HURRICANE WEAKENED AS SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO 984 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS MEASURED BY THE SFMR SUPPORT ONLY A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE WAS DISRUPTED OVER YUCATAN BUT SATELLITE STILL SHOWS SEVERAL CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH A FAIR OUTFLOW. THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WARMER WATERS...ABOUT 30 DEGREE CELSIUS...OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOON AND THE SHEAR IS LOW ALONG THE TRACK. IN ADDITION...ALL GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 200 MB ANTICYLONE OVER EMILY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THEREFORE... RE-STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE EMILY WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER YUCATAN...IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CYCLONE WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. EMILY CONTINUES ON TRACK...ABOUT 295/14 KNOTS AROUND THE DEEP LAYER MEAN HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND COULD EVEN BUILD WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP EMILY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL OVER THE STATE OF TAMAULIPAS...NORTHEAST MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK...OR A HURRICANE LARGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 22.3N 91.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 23.0N 93.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 24.0N 95.5W 90 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 24.5N 98.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 24.5N 100.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
