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| #33779 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 18.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO WRAP AROUND EMILY'S LARGE RAGGED EYE...AND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT YET FALLEN...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYE WALL. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND OF 80 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME RATHER SYMMETRIC AS EMILY SHEDS THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN. EMILY COULD BE APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE AND IS ABOUT 300/13. ALL AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF EMILY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL. THE 18Z GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH BUT THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 22.9N 92.1W 80 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 23.6N 93.9W 85 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 24.2N 96.2W 95 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 24.5N 98.5W 70 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
